Looking at the technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) over time and its history of making parabolic price movements I’ve come up with a very interesting and specific bitcoin price forecast for 2021-2023 based on all of its historical parabolic movements.
Here’s a Bitcoin Parabolic Chart from 2017 that helps you see the parabolic movements visually:
Looking at the new all time highs set by bitcoin in the past, they are almost always followed by a swift 30% decline in the price of bitcoin before the bearish selling momentum turns back to bullish buying again.
Given the new ATH bitcoin price $34,777, a 30% decline of $11,500 will soon bring the bitcoin price back down to ($23,500-$24,000).
$24,000 is also a key resistance level above $20K that needs to be retested both technically & psychologically.
Bitcoin will need to survive the $24K level crash to form a new base bottom before the next big move of BTC price can move up 10X.
When looking at the 10X run in 2014 from $120 to $1,200, immediately following the 10X move up BTC price gave back 83% of its value crashing back down to $200 in 2015.
2017 saw Bitcoin go from $1,100 to $19,600 – before giving up 84% of its value to $3150 in 2018.
So, now that the shorts have been squeezed and the mania has peaked brining BTC to the recent parabolic move to $35,000, selling has already begun and the move down to $24,000 is under way now.
IF bitcoin can survive the crash to $24,000 throughout trading levels in 2021 and find a bottom for itself at the $24,000 base price in 2021 then it could begin its next parabolic move of 10X up to potentially $240,000 by the end of 2023.
That is the best case scenario in my analysis.
However, If Bitcoin can not find a itself a new base at $24,000, then a second crash will cause the bitcoin price to then retest the $20,000 level.
If that $20,000 bitcoin price fails, a swift ~33% crash would take bitcoin back down to a very solid $12,000 resistance level.
There’s still a fairly realistic chance that Bitcoin gives up nearly 84 % AGAIN like IT DID in after BOTH of the last 2 major parabolic moves up.
Bitcoin’s price fell 84% in the 2018 crash after the 2017 ATH $19,600 which crashed all the way down to $3,150, just like it gave up 84% of its value from $1,200 to $200.
So… in 2020 Bitcoin rose ~10X from $3100 to $30,000.
Could yet another 84% crash happen for a three peat?
In that ultimate worst case 84% loss scenario that we’ve seen happen after both of the last two 10X+ moves, Bitcoin would bottom around $5,520 after a third 84% crash.
In that case, a 10X move up would take bitcoin to $55,200 by the end of 2023.
So what do you all think?
Is a bitcoin price crash to $24,000 going to be the next big parabolic price movement?
What do you think the price will likely be by the end of 2023?
$55,200 or $240,000? or something else altogether and why?
Please leave your comments sharing your thoughts.
Hopefully it will find good support at $24,000 and go back up from there, however, Time alone will tell …
Congrats to all the hodlers but don’t get greedy 😉
Disclaimer: I’m short Bitcoin – short BTC and will be looking for a swift drop to $24,000.